On (ONON) vs Hoka (DECK) — quarterly tracker

Unison proprietary dashboard

Sources: Unison ONON model + Tegus DECK model (raw/Consumer Footwear/); BBG ALTD card-panel ATV data; Playwright inventory scrape of on.com (9 storefronts × 4 categories); Google Trends 5y weekly. HOKA reports in USD; ONON CHF converted at quarterly avg FX.

ONON — Mar 2026

Revenue (USD)
$1,023M
+26.4% YoY
Est. ASP (CCY)
170
Est. units
4.49M
Rev / unit (USD)
$228

HOKA — Mar 2026

Revenue (USD)
$671M
+14.5% YoY
Est. ASP (CCY)
153
Est. units
4.39M
Rev / unit (USD)
$153

1. Quarterly revenue (USD)

2. Regional revenue — ONON (Q1 2023+)

ONON discloses regional split quarterly. HOKA regional revenue is not disclosed at the brand level — DECK only reports company-wide Domestic vs International. Hoka regional triangulation deferred to next iteration (needs working hoka.com inventory scrape, currently blocked by DataDome).

3. Channel mix — DTC vs Wholesale (Q1 2023+)

4. ASP & units — modeled

Anchors, in priority order: (1) disclosed on earnings call (ONON 1Q26 = 170 CHF); (2) online inventory weighted-avg from on.com Playwright scrape (current quarter); (3) Bloomberg ATV card-panel data, monthly→quarterly avg (May 2023 onward; brand-level for ONON, parent-level for DECK — interpret HOKA ASP as proxy); (4) linear interpolation between adjacent anchors.
Per-quarter anchor methodology trace
period_end brand_code metric value methodology
2023-06-30 HOKA atv_asp 136.68 BBG ATV monthly avg, parent=DECK, target_ccy=USD
2023-09-30 HOKA atv_asp 143.47 BBG ATV monthly avg, parent=DECK, target_ccy=USD
2023-12-31 HOKA atv_asp 147.79 BBG ATV monthly avg, parent=DECK, target_ccy=USD
2024-03-31 HOKA atv_asp 142.67 BBG ATV monthly avg, parent=DECK, target_ccy=USD
2024-03-31 HOKA est_asp 142.67 bbg_atv
2024-06-30 HOKA atv_asp 146.41 BBG ATV monthly avg, parent=DECK, target_ccy=USD
2024-06-30 HOKA est_asp 146.41 bbg_atv
2024-09-30 HOKA atv_asp 151.22 BBG ATV monthly avg, parent=DECK, target_ccy=USD
2024-09-30 HOKA est_asp 151.22 bbg_atv
2024-12-31 HOKA atv_asp 150.56 BBG ATV monthly avg, parent=DECK, target_ccy=USD
2024-12-31 HOKA est_asp 150.56 bbg_atv
2025-03-31 HOKA atv_asp 147.35 BBG ATV monthly avg, parent=DECK, target_ccy=USD
2025-03-31 HOKA est_asp 147.35 bbg_atv
2025-06-30 HOKA atv_asp 152.73 BBG ATV monthly avg, parent=DECK, target_ccy=USD
2025-06-30 HOKA est_asp 152.73 bbg_atv
2025-09-30 HOKA atv_asp 157.05 BBG ATV monthly avg, parent=DECK, target_ccy=USD
2025-09-30 HOKA est_asp 157.05 bbg_atv
2025-12-31 HOKA atv_asp 153.82 BBG ATV monthly avg, parent=DECK, target_ccy=USD
2025-12-31 HOKA est_asp 153.82 bbg_atv
2026-03-31 HOKA atv_asp 152.97 BBG ATV monthly avg, parent=DECK, target_ccy=USD
2026-03-31 HOKA est_asp 152.97 bbg_atv
2023-03-31 ONON est_asp 156.44 flat_carry_from_2023-06-30
2023-06-30 ONON atv_asp 156.44 BBG ATV monthly avg, parent=ONON, target_ccy=CHF
2023-06-30 ONON est_asp 156.44 bbg_atv
2023-09-30 ONON atv_asp 150.79 BBG ATV monthly avg, parent=ONON, target_ccy=CHF
2023-09-30 ONON est_asp 150.79 bbg_atv
2023-12-31 ONON atv_asp 149.21 BBG ATV monthly avg, parent=ONON, target_ccy=CHF
2023-12-31 ONON est_asp 149.21 bbg_atv
2024-03-31 ONON atv_asp 149.07 BBG ATV monthly avg, parent=ONON, target_ccy=CHF
2024-03-31 ONON est_asp 149.07 bbg_atv
2024-06-30 ONON atv_asp 158.53 BBG ATV monthly avg, parent=ONON, target_ccy=CHF
2024-06-30 ONON est_asp 158.53 bbg_atv
2024-09-30 ONON atv_asp 141.33 BBG ATV monthly avg, parent=ONON, target_ccy=CHF
2024-09-30 ONON est_asp 141.33 bbg_atv
2024-12-31 ONON atv_asp 148.61 BBG ATV monthly avg, parent=ONON, target_ccy=CHF
2024-12-31 ONON est_asp 148.61 bbg_atv
2025-03-31 ONON atv_asp 149.08 BBG ATV monthly avg, parent=ONON, target_ccy=CHF
2025-03-31 ONON est_asp 149.08 bbg_atv
2025-06-30 ONON atv_asp 144.15 BBG ATV monthly avg, parent=ONON, target_ccy=CHF
2025-06-30 ONON est_asp 144.15 bbg_atv
2025-09-30 ONON atv_asp 142.69 BBG ATV monthly avg, parent=ONON, target_ccy=CHF
2025-09-30 ONON est_asp 142.69 bbg_atv
2025-12-31 ONON atv_asp 145.10 BBG ATV monthly avg, parent=ONON, target_ccy=CHF
2025-12-31 ONON est_asp 145.10 bbg_atv
2026-03-31 ONON atv_asp 143.20 BBG ATV monthly avg, parent=ONON, target_ccy=CHF
2026-03-31 ONON est_asp 170.00 disclosed

5. HOKA P&L — margin trend

HOKA segment EBIT margin compressed from ~37% prior-year peak to ~27% in latest reported quarter. Watch SG&A (esp. A&M spend reinvestment) and gross margin for cause attribution.

6. Online inventory — scraped from on.com / hoka.com

on.com inventory via Playwright across 9 regional storefronts × 4 categories; all prices normalized to USD using current spot FX. hoka.com blocked by DataDome bot protection — Hoka rows below are stub markers; ASP for Hoka still uses BBG ATV.
Calibration: ONON disclosed 1Q26 ASP = 170 CHF (~$209 USD). Today's scrape across all regions (avg of 103 shoes SKUs, all normalized to USD) = $215 (+2.9% vs disclosed). Premium driven by LOEWE collabs up to $750.
SKU counts + USD price ranges per region
brand_code region category n_skus avg_list_price min_list_price max_list_price
ONON americas apparel 74 165.85 20.0 990.00
ONON americas shoes 18 151.67 50.0 200.00
ONON apac apparel 142 288.87 40.0 1400.00
ONON apac shoes 24 296.46 40.0 990.00
ONON emea apparel 289 209.57 27.0 1027.05
ONON emea shoes 61 197.27 10.8 594.00

7. Google Trends — brand interest by region

5-year weekly interest from Google Trends (pytrends), averaged across each brand's keyword set.

8. Social media — followers + mentions

Public-profile follower counts tracked over time (scraped weekly via SocialBlade + Wayback Machine where current scrape blocked). Reddit mentions captured via Reddit search API.
Built 2026-05-22 15:40 from data/tracker.sqlite. Refresh: python scripts/run_daily.py then scripts/deploy_cloudflare.ps1. Methodology: docs/methodology.md.